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NZ Treasury: "The likely effect would therefore be to increase house prices"

www.treasury.govt.nz /sites/default/files/2022-01/oia-20200334.pdf

I stumbled across a 2020 OIA request to NZ Treasury where someone asked:

what analysis Treasury has done on the KiwiSaver First Home scheme affecting house prices, and how much taxpayer money gets transferred into the housing stock

Treasury released a few internal docs and they basically say that increasing caps would lead to higher house prices and that subsidies for renters/buyers tend to be captured by landlords/sellers instead of improving affordability long-term.

The advice was apparently ignored.

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